China: Both official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs rose in June

Research evidence excerpt

China: Both official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs rose in June

Goldman Sachs China

price indicators likely reflected the recent pullback in commodity prices, particularly oil,

as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased after tanker traffic through the

Strait of Hormuz increased.

3. The official non-manufacturing PMI (comprising the services and construction

sectors) edged up to 50.2 in June (vs. 50.1 in May). The services PMI inched up to 50.4

(vs. 50.3 in May). According to the survey, the PMIs for telecommunications,

broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, internet software and

information technology services, monetary financial services, and insurance industries

were above 55. Conversely, the PMIs of air transport and real estate services industries

were below 50 in June. The construction PMI increased to 49.0 in June (vs. 48.8 in May),

remaining at a low level relative to historical averages. Adverse weather conditions such

as summer heatwaves and heavy rainfall likely disrupted outdoor activity in June.

4. Overall, the June NBS PMIs point to a modest pickup in manufacturing and services

activity, alongside a continued contraction in the construction sector. Manufacturing

price indicators eased notably in June; however, the input price sub-index remained well

above 50 while the output price sub-index was below 50, suggesting profit margins

remained under pressure.

Yuting Yang

Exhibit 1: NBS manufacturing PMI rose in June Exhibit 2: Both the output and input prices sub-indexes of

the NBS manufacturing PMI declined notably in June

Index Index Index Index

56 56 75 75

China NBS manufacturing PMI:

54 54 70 Output prices 70

52 52 Input prices

65 65

50 50

60 60

48 48

55 55

46 46

China NBS manufacturing PMI: 50 50

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