Collins Food Ltd. (CKF.AX): FY26 Review: In-line result with initiatives targeting cost mitigation; maintain Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Collins Food Ltd. (CKF.AX): FY26 Review: In-line result with initiatives targeting cost mitigation; maintain Buy

Goldman Sachs Collins Food Ltd. (CKF.AX)

o SSSg the most effective lever to offset costs. Collins have started FY27

positively with SSSg accelerating for the first 8-weeks of 1H27 to +4.0% (2H26

+3.1%). Looking forward, we forecast SSSg to moderate to +3.3% for FY27

with further upside if Collins are able to execute on various initiatives in FY27,

including: 1) full-period contribution of delivery fee structure/promotional

changes; 2) national Kwench roll out which provided an initial +2-3% sales

growth in trials (completed by mid-2027; 80% by April 2027); and 3) Daypart

expansion with staggered late-night trade extension to midnight through

FY27, as well as a breakfast trial in 2027.

n KFC Europe remains challenging with long term targets intact.

o SSSg soft to start FY27. Both Germany and Netherlands have had weak starts

to 1H27 with SSSg for the first 8-weeks -7.2%/-7.8% cycling a strong

promotional period and the macro environment/weather impacting consumer

demand. We forecast SSSg to improve into 2H27 as the operating environment

stabilises.

o KFC Germany store roll-out remains the strategic target. Collins have

reiterated their organic store roll-out target of +45-90 to reach 71-115 stores

in Germany by FY30. We forecast FY30 stores of 66, below targeted levels,

with upside to our forecasts if Collins delivers evidence of pipeline

development and/or organic store openings (+7 targeted for FY27).

o KFC Netherlands focus on profitability. Netherlands operations continue to

be deprioritised with focus shifting to profitability with the CFA extended to

31 December 2029 and YUM to resume marketing responsibilities so Collins

can focus on operations.