Super El Niño implications across European Food: TMICC and Danone best positioned, while Barry Callebaut and Lindt most at risk

Research evidence excerpt

Super El Niño implications across European Food: TMICC and Danone best positioned, while Barry Callebaut and Lindt most at risk

Equity Research

30 June 2026 | 10:17PM BST

EUROPE FOOD

Super El Niño implications across European Food: TMICC and Danone

best positioned, while Barry Callebaut and Lindt most at risk

With a super El Niño now almost certain to appear later this year according to the Sam Darbyshire, CFA

+44(20)7051-9112 |

NOAA (here), we aim to contextualise the impact on packaged food by assessing sam.darbyshire@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

which companies are most exposed to: (1) supply volatility affecting raw material

Olivier Nicolaïprocurement, and (2) changes in consumer spending in key markets, driven by the +44(20)7774-2895 |

impact of farming on consumer income, and category sales impacts from changes in olivier.nicolai@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

weather patterns. In this context, we see TMICC (Sell) and Danone (Neutral) as best Rebecca Ayo-Adebanjo

positioned, due to lower exposures to commodities adversely impacted by El Niño, +44(20)7552-2213adebanjo@gs.com | rebecca.ayo-

and category exposures which could benefit (ice cream and bottled water). Goldman Sachs International

MedisettiMeanwhile, we see the biggest risks for Lindt (Sell) and Barry Callebaut (Neutral) Srikar | +1(332)245-7675

due to their high exposure to cocoa (which is negatively impacted by El Niño). srikar.medisetti@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL

Super El Niño could boost pistachio and soybean production but adversely affect Aron Adamski +44(20)7774-6224 |

oilseeds, almond, and barley. Crops where production is highly concentrated aron.adamski@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

typically see the biggest swings in production, as highlighted by our commodities

Tom Hulls