YE2025 Statutory Data: Short-Tailed Property Lines

Research evidence excerpt

YE2025 Statutory Data: Short-Tailed Property Lines

Foundation

July 1, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMInsurance - Property & Casualty | North America Bob Jian Huang

Equity Analyst

YE2025 Statutory Data: Short- Bob.Huang@morganstanley.comDaniel Lee, ACAS +1 212 761-6136

Research Associate

Daniel.Lee4@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0219

Tailed Property Lines Siddhant Shah

Sid.Shah@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2603

The property market is shifting from pricing power to

Insurance - Property & Casualty

underwriting discipline. As pricing moderates in a prolonged soft North America

market, insurers that prioritize margins over premium growth Industry View Attractive

should be best positioned to outperform.

One of the more profitable LOBs, favorable PYD likely to come, but peak

margins for now. We expect the property insurance market to remain in a

prolonged softening cycle unless a major catastrophe materially erodes industry

capital (Insurance - Property & Casualty: Soft Market 2029+? This Time is Already

Different (4 Jun 2026)). Following several years of strong rate increases, favorable

catastrophe experience, and disciplined underwriting, industry profitability has

reached multi-decade highs across homeowners and commercial property lines,

driving increased competition and moderating pricing. We expect property pricing to

continue easing across both personal and commercial lines as excess capital and

strong underwriting results pressure renewal rates. As earned rate growth slows

and catastrophe losses normalize, premium growth should decelerate and combined

ratios gradually trend higher, though underwriting margins should remain healthy

absent a significant capital-depleting loss event. For combined short-tail property