June CAPMI: Favorable Signals for 2H

Research evidence excerpt

June CAPMI: Favorable Signals for 2H

Update

July 1, 2026 10:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMulti-Industry | North America Toby Okwara

Equity Analyst

June CAPMI: Favorable Signals Toby.Okwara@morganstanley.comChristopher Snyder, CFA +1 212 761-1693

Chris.Snyder@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4470

for 2H Brandon Knutson

Brandon.Knutson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4168

In June, CAPMI rose 1pt m/m to 54, the 7th straight month at or Christine Yao

above parity, as improvements in Europe and APAC offset a ResearchChristine.Yao@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-4193

sharp decline in the Global sub-index. CAPMI historically leads

Multi-Industry

Multis organic growth by 2-3 quarters, so the recent positive North America

trajectory provides a constructive signal for 2H. Industry View Attractive

Key Takeaways

MS CAPMI rose 1pt m/m to 54 in June, now at or above parity for the 7th straight

month and 8th in the past 9

The underlying monthly reading fell 13pts m/m to 50, with modestly positive US,

Europe, and APAC data offset by softness in the Global sub-index

Improvements in the Europe (+11) and APAC (+2) readings, offset a sharp decline

in the Global sub-index (-13)

The same indicators, including CAPMI, that caused us to turn positive on US

Industrial short-cycle entering 2026 now suggest momentum should sustain

through 2H

Exhibit 1: Our MS CAPMI Index rose 1pts m/m to 54 in June, marking 7 straight

months at or above parity, the longest such streak since November 2023-May

2024.

Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26

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