China: What do local clients think about the economy?: Local marketing takeaways, June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

China: What do local clients think about the economy?: Local marketing takeaways, June 2026

Economics Research

30 June 2026 | 2:01PM HKT

China: What do local clients think about the economy? Local marketing

takeaways, June 2026

Over the past week, we met with onshore clients in Beijing and Shanghai, including Yuting Yang

+852-2978-7283 |

mutual funds, private equity firms, and asset managers from banks and insurers. yuting.y.yang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Compared with two months ago, local clients appeared more cautious on China’s

near-term growth momentum, reflecting weaker April-May activity data and a more

bifurcated growth mix. Policy easing expectations also remain subdued, with

investors generally expecting support to stay reactive rather than proactive unless

downside risks intensify. Beyond growth, discussions focused on fragile consumer

confidence amid labor-market pressures and the negative wealth effect from the

ongoing property downturn; mixed local government incentives to expand

investment despite ample fiscal funding; implementation risks around the new

cross-border investment rules; and the AI capex outlook.

Key Takeaways:

1. More cautious on near-term growth momentum

Following strong growth in Q1, weaker April-May activity data have left onshore

investors more cautious on China’s near-term macro outlook. Growth has become

more uneven: exports continue to support headline activity, but domestic demand

has softened notably. Moreover, the boost from exports has not translated into a

stronger labor market or meaningful profit improvement, limiting the pass-through

from external demand to domestic growth. Some investors noted that real export

growth slowed to 4.5% yoy in April-May from 15.2% yoy in Q1; absent more visible