Q2 preview - another performance step-up (and hopefully more to go)

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 preview - another performance step-up (and hopefully more to go)

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Aperam 30 June 2026

Forecast Change

Europe

Luxembourg

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 29 Jun 2026 (EUR) 41.78

APAM.AS APAM NA AEX APAM

Price Target (EUR) 65.00

Steel

ADR ISIN 52-week range (EUR) 53.05 - 25.00

APEMY US03754H1041

Q2 preview - another performance step-

Valuation & Risks up (and hopefully more to go)

Bastian Synagowitz

Significant FCF potential, growth & leveraged to EU rebound – Buy Research Analyst

Aperam(APAM) is due to report Q2 results, and, in-line with guidance, we expect a +41-44-227-3377

sequentially stronger set of numbers, driven by seasonally better volumes as well

Liam Fitzpatrick

as better margins and metal tailwinds. Although underlying demand in Europe Research Analyst

remains soft and side effects of the conflict in the Middle East remain a risk for the +44-20-754-13233

economy, we believe policy measures (CBAM and EU safeguards) should support

volumes and prices for European domestic players. Although wider market risks Key changes

have been rising, we continue to see considerable upside potential, as: (1) cyclical DB EPS (EUR) 1.94 to 1.93 ↓ -0.6%

leverage to EU prices and the planned trade policy is high and should support prices Source: Deutsche Bank

and margins after demand dropped to a 15-year low; (2) cash-generation capability

remains solid, and (3) management targets another c.E200m+ of structural

earnings improvements. This should not only be driven by efficiency and cost

improvement but also growth in the Alloys business. Underpinned by Aperam's

strong FCF yield of 14-22% 2027-28E, we retain Buy.

Q2 results due on 30 July

We expect Aperam to report a sequentially better Q2 in-line with guidance, driven