Q2 2026 earnings: Looking For Growth In The High 20s

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 2026 earnings: Looking For Growth In The High 20s

Deutsche Bank

Research

Global Strategy Date

30 June 2026

Asset Allocation Strategy Update

Q2 2026 earnings: Looking For Growth

In The High 20s

Binky Chadha

n Highest consensus growth expectation going into an earnings season

Chief Strategist

(26%). Extremely positive Q2 corporate guidance has driven consensus S&P

+1-212-250-4776

500 earnings growth expectations to 26.2%, above the 4-year high of 25.2%

in Q1 and double the prior record going into an earnings season outside of Parag Thatte

recoveries from recessions. The consensus sees Tech continuing to lead, with Strategist

outsized and rising growth in the Semis contributing 11pp, continued solid +1-212-250-6605

growth in the rest of MCG & Tech 6pp, while the rest of the S&P 500

Karthik Prabhu

contributes meaningfully at 9pp.

Strategist

n We see macro and tech momentum helping earnings clear the high Q2 +1-212-250-1246

bar. A supportive macro backdrop, with the global manufacturing PMIs Dag Workayehu

rebounding sharply, higher oil prices, and a weaker dollar combined with the Strategist

acceleration in AI-related earnings point to 29.3% growth, implying a roughly +1-212-250-4771

3% beat.

n Pre-earnings performance and positioning point to an average earnings

season rally, stronger medium-term performance. Earnings seasons are

typically positive for equities (positive 75% of the time, average 2%). With the

S&P 500 up modestly and equity positioning near neutral, the setup is for

near-average returns through reporting season. However, as positioning is

well below what strong earnings growth and expectations suggest, we see

scope for equities to move higher over the medium term.

The bar for Q2 has been rising rapidly

n Company guidance has been strongly positive.