Fed Notes: Task force takes: #1 Communications

Research evidence excerpt

Fed Notes: Task force takes: #1 Communications

30 June 2026

Fed Notes

median projections are at the front of the SEP – as well as on Bloomberg’s

economic calendar screen – Fed officials will have a hard time convincing markets

to focus on the dispersion in views or the degree of uncertainty that are conveyed

on the back pages of the SEP.

Press conferences: New content, same frequency

Could Warsh reduce the frequency of post-meeting press conferences? His

comments at the June FOMC meeting left open this possibility. We think this is

unlikely but do expect their content to change markedly.

In June, Warsh noted a quote from his mentor George Shultz, “Press conferences

are useful. But when you have one, you want to make sure you have something

important to say.” He went on to note that the Fed had important information to

relay in June, related to its commitment to price stability and the formation of task

forces, and that he “expect[s] more changes to come, and, and some of those

might well be worthy of a press conference.”

But holding press conferences on an ad-hoc rather than systematic basis would

seem to inject unnecessary volatility in Fed communications, and it is reasonable

that the head of the Fed should have something important to say about the

economy and monetary policy roughly every six weeks. Moreover, Warsh could

be presiding over a potentially fractured Committee. The press conference

provides a powerful and frequent platform for him to put his stamp on the

Committee’s message and frame the narrative immediately following each policy

decision. While we will be mindful of any noticeable differences in tone between

his presser and other FOMC communications like the post-meeting statement or

minutes, it would be a missed opportunity for him to cede this stage.