Q2 preview - Policy tailwinds drive European turnaround

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 preview - Policy tailwinds drive European turnaround

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Outokumpu 30 June 2026

Forecast Change

Europe

Finland

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 29 Jun 2026 (EUR) 4.98

OUT1V.HE OUT1V FH HEX OUT1V

Price Target (EUR) 5.20

Metals & Mining

ADR ISIN 52-week range (EUR) 6.20 - 3.28

OUTKY US69011W1018

Q2 preview - Policy tailwinds drive

Valuation & Risks European turnaround

Bastian Synagowitz

Benefitting from trade protection - strategy decisions ahead - Hold Research Analyst

Outokumpu is due to report Q2 results, and we expect a significant sequential +41-44-227-3377

improvement driven by better volumes, as well as prices and metal tailwinds.

Liam Fitzpatrick

Together, these should support the European business to get back to break even Research Analyst

while both Americas and Ferrochrome continue to perform strongly. Although +44-20-754-13233

underlying demand in Europe remains soft and side effects of the conflict in the

Middle East remain a risk for the economy, we believe policy measures should

support volumes and prices for European domestic players. We made minor

adjustments to our numbers and remain 6-13% below the street for FY26-28. (PT

remains at E5.2). With a best-in-class CO2 profile in Europe, Outokumpu benefits

from CBAM and is also highly levered to a possible market rebound supported by

the planned step-up in EU trade protection. However, part of these benefits are

being absorbed by changes to local Finnish tax and energy regulation government

and strategically, Outokumpu has the ambition to step up its investments to grow

and expand into niche grades. This implies the risk of lower cash conversion and

history has shown that execution risk in organic growth projects is elevated. Hence,