Roche (ROPC.S): Messy 1H‘26 print, but on-track to hit FY26 targets – giredestrant adjuvant Breast Cancer launch moving into focus

Research evidence excerpt

Roche (ROPC.S): Messy 1H‘26 print, but on-track to hit FY26 targets – giredestrant adjuvant Breast Cancer launch moving into focus

Goldman Sachs Roche (ROPC.S)

FY26, which is not yet reflected in consensus forecasts. For FY26 guidance, we

expect guidance to be reiterated, suggesting limited risk to consensus estimates (on

the up or downside).

n 2H26 quieter from a newsflow perspective, with focus building on the

giredestrant adjuvant breast cancer launch. As we look into 2H26, the key clinical

newsflow appears de-risked from other trials, in our view, including KRASCENDO 1

for divarasib in 2L KRASG12C+ NSCLC and sefaxersen (factor B ASO – mechanism

de-risked by NOVN’s Fabhalta), both of which with relatively modest commercial

opportunities (GSe CHF1.2bn and CHF2bn, respectively). The lack of high risk or

binary events could make Roche look more attractive to some investors, particularly

into the giredestrant launch (FDA approval Nov’26), which is emerging as the key

reason to own Roche for many investors – with low risk adjuvant breast cancer

particularly another leg of upside for giredestrant peak sales, once Phase 3 trials

read out in the future (novERA reads out in 2H’30). Given the current portfolio, we

see growth for Roche out to 2033, while the sector revenue starts to turn negative

due to patent cliffs, in our view. However, as we only have c.7% upside, we remain

Neutral rated.

n Minor changes to our Price Target (+1% up). We update our forecasts based on 1)

latest FX trends; 2) IQVIA prescription data and roll our DCF valuation by 6 months.

We lower our estimates on Vabysmo due to weak IQVIA prescription trends, on

Kadcyla due to the FDA approval of Enhertu in early breast cancer, and on Ocrevus

due to competition from Briumvi.