THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS: Auf Wiedersehen (30 June)

Research evidence excerpt

THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS: Auf Wiedersehen (30 June)

Economics Research

30 June 2026 | 6:27AM EDT

THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS

Auf Wiedersehen (30 June)

The second day of the round of 32 was an emotional rollercoaster with two major Jan Hatzius

+1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com

European teams sent home already. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Giovanni Pierdomenico

After conceding in the first half, Germany managed to equalise with Kai Havertz at +44(20)7051-6807 |

giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com

the start of the second half but was forced beyond regulations by a fierce Paraguay. Goldman Sachs International

Following a disallowed German goal in extra-time, Paraguay won it on penalties and Sven Jari Stehn

advanced to the round of 16, where they will face the winner of today’s +44(20)7774-8061Goldman Sachs International| jari.stehn@gs.com

France-Sweden.

After the Netherlands took the lead in the second half, Issa Diop’s equaliser in added

time rescued Morocco and sent the game to extra-time. Eventually, penalties were

necessary in this game, too. Morocco advanced and will face Canada in Houston on

July 4th.

An initial Japanese lead made all Seleção fans tremble in the first half, but Ancelotti’s

team did not lose their cool. After Casemiro’s equaliser, Martinelli’s 96th-minute goal

sent Brazil to the round of 16, where they will face the winner of Cote d’Ivoire -

Norway.

Exhibit 1 shows our expectations for today’s games. Exhibit 2 outlines the key

predictions of our model for the knockout stage. See here for more details on our

approach to modelling the knockout stage and how to read the chart. Following

yesterday’s games, the model-implied probability of France winning the tournament

rose meaningfully, reflecting what looks like an easier path (at least on paper) to the