Credit Investor Survey: The heat is on

Research evidence excerpt

Credit Investor Survey: The heat is on

The survey says…

Two big changes… as markets flip from war to peace:

1. “AI bubbles” is back again as investors’ top concern (last seen in Feb ’26). And

“equity market corrections” are understandably high up the worry list too. Chart 5

shows that the average daily price move of the Kospi over the last month, for

instance, has been almost 4%.

2. Conviction level on today’s big worry is low: supportive, we think, of risk assets

being able to grind higher over summer. Note that just 19% say “AI bubble” is their

top concern − the lowest reading for any top worry since Dec ‘18 (chart 1).

Chart 1: History of credit investors’ biggest perceived risks (IG investors). % saying top worry

Peace means “AI bubbles” is back as investors’ top worry (19%). No investor flags high energy prices now.

Jun-26 AI Bubble

Apr-26 High energy prices

Feb-26 AI Bubble

Dec-25 Bubbles in Credit

Sep-25 Bubbles in Credit

Jun-25 Trade Tensions

Apr-25 Global Recession

Feb-25 Trade Tensions

Dec-24 Geopolitical Conflict

Oct-24 Geopolitical Conflict

Aug-24 Geopolitical Conflict

Jun-24 Geopolitical Conflict

Apr-24 Inflation

Feb-24 Inflation

Dec-23 CB policy errors

Oct-23 Global Recession

Aug-23 Global Recession

Jun-23 Global Recession

Apr-23 Global Recession

Feb-23 CB policy errors

Dec-22 Global Recession

Oct-22 Global Recession

Aug-22 Global Recession

Jun-22 Global Recession

Apr-22 CB policy errors

Feb-22 CB policy errors

Dec-21 CB policy errors

Oct-21 CB policy errors

Aug-21 Covid-19 lingers/New variants emerge

Jun-21 Inflation

Apr-21 Bubbles in Credit

Feb-21 Covid-19 lingers/Slow vaccine rollout

Dec-20 Bubbles in Credit

Oct-20 Covid-19 lingers

Aug-20 Covid-19 lingers

Jun-20 Global Recession/Covid-19 lingers

Apr-20 Global Recession

Feb-20 Bubbles in Credit