Banks - Thailand: 2Q26 preview: A transition quarter

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Banks - Thailand: 2Q26 preview: A transition quarter

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Banks - Thailand

2Q26 preview: A transition quarter

Earnings Preview

NIM pressure should largely end in 2Q26 29 June 2026

We expect 2Q26 to mark the trough in sector NIMs. With our house view calling for a Equity

terminal policy rate of 1%, the bulk of the interest rate downcycle should now be behind ASEAN | Thailand

us. Meanwhile, deposit repricing continues to catch up with policy easing, while banks Banks

have gradually improved their loan mix toward lower-risk, better-priced segments over Sarachada Sornsong ^^^

the past two years. As a result, margin pressure should ease meaningfully from here. We Research Analyst

forecast the sector's average NIM to decline by just 2bps QoQ to 2.65% in 2Q26, which Kiatnakin+66 2 305Phatra9197 Securities

we believe marks the trough of this easing cycle. sarachada.sorn@kkpfg.com

Loan growth begins to stabilize

NIM: Net interest marginLoan growth remains subdued but early signs of recovery are emerging. Corporate

lending, driven primarily by higher working capital demand, together with selected FVTPL: Fair value through profit and

secured lending, has started to offset weakness in other segments. Although part of the loss

improvement reflects reflation rather than stronger real activities, we believe credit

demand is gradually recovering from an exceptionally weak base. We forecast loan KBANK: Kasikornbank

growth of 0.8% YoY and 1.3% YTD in 2Q26. Recovery should remain gradual, but we

KTB: Krung Thai Bank

believe the direction is becoming more encouraging.

TTB: TMBThanachart Bank

Earnings remain resilient

Despite lower NIMs and the normalization of FVTPL and investment gains, sector

earnings should remain resilient.