Watt’s Up #105: May power installation, RE consumption targets, new AD/CVD case

Research evidence excerpt

Watt’s Up #105: May power installation, RE consumption targets, new AD/CVD case

The policy also provides detailed rules for calculating RE consumption, covering locally

generated and consumed renewable power, self-consumption projects, green power

direct connections, and cross-provincial power transfers. Specific methodologies are

defined for accounting renewable electricity imported through various transmission

arrangements, including point-to-grid and grid-to-grid transactions.

Power: Takeaways of new energy system 15th FYP

The NEA held a press briefing on Jun 26th on the new energy system’s 15th FYP. We

highlight a few key points below (see report: China’s New Energy System 15th FYP

approved).

First, the newly disclosed 2,800GW wind-and-solar capacity target is arguably the most

important incremental datapoint. While the plan only specifies total installed power

capacity of 5,400GW, the dedicated renewable sub-target implies roughly 1,100–

1,200GW of net new wind and solar additions over 2026–30, equivalent to 220–240GW

annually, providing greater visibility on long-term renewable deployment.

Second, the indication of more than RMB5 trillion in grid investment during the period,

around 30% above the previous FYP, was not included in the written plan and represents

the clearest capex signal for grid infrastructure names. The explicit reference to 15 new

UHV DC transmission corridors further strengthens the investment case for key

transmission equipment suppliers such as Zhongtian Technology and Ningbo Orient.

Third, the updated power mix statistics provide a useful baseline for long-term

modelling. During the 14th FYP, coal's share of installed capacity declined from 49% to

32%, while its share of generation fell from 61% to 51%, highlighting the continued