CMBS Weekly: Our mid-year 2026 outlook: a K-shaped everything

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CMBS Weekly: Our mid-year 2026 outlook: a K-shaped everything

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CMBS Weekly

Our mid-year 2026 outlook: a K-shaped

everything

Key takeaways 26 June 2026

Securitized Products Strategy• CMBS spreads stable; expect more tightening, but gradually. Shorten duration.

United States

• Favor higher quality, higher rated, shorter duration bonds. AAA CRE CLO and SASB

floaters attractive. Alan Todd, CFA

CMBS Strategist

• Midyear outlook: With potential rate hikes on the horizon, we prefer high quality BofAS

+1 646 855 6383

floaters. Conduit refis stable ex office. alan.todd@bofa.com

Nick O'Brien

BofASIssuance relatively quiet, but forward pipeline strong +1 646 855 6366

Two private label transactions priced this week, bringing the total to five newly issued nicholas.obrien@bofa.com

deals totaling $4.1bn since our last publication. Year‑to‑date volume continues to track

ahead of recent years, and we expect issuance during 2H 2026 will remain robust,

despite new “higher for longer” interest rate expectations. We maintain our outlook for

$185bn private label issuance, broken out into ~$50bn CRE CLO, $35bn conduit, and

$100bn SASB.

Exhibit 1: Fannie DUS traded 2bp widerCPPI and Cap Rates this week

This week RCA released updated CRE valuation data. National CRE prices increased All other CMBS spreads were unchanged on

approximately 1.7% year over year, with non‑major markets contributing a larger share the week

of the appreciation relative to gateway markets. By property type, suburban office was

On-the-run Conduit bond spreads to

the largest month/month and year/year gainer. CBD office prices fell on a month/month Treasury

basis but remain positive year/year. Cap rate spreads have been little changed on a year 6/25 WTD MTD YTD Min Max