Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 29 June – 10 July

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Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 29 June – 10 July

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Global Macro Watch

Known Unknowns 29 June – 10 July

US: Employment report, FOMC minutes 28 June 2026

Payrolls to come in at healthy 110k (private 120k) in June. Claims have been benign and Economics Rates & FX

ADP weekly data look strong. However, we flag downside risks to our payroll forecast Global

since the surge in leisure & hospitality in May could either be World Cup related or due

to Memorial Day timing seasonality. The u-rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, but if HH Table of Contents

employment continues to move up, there is a risk it could round down to 4.2%. In the

Known Unknowns 2

June minutes, markets will focus on the discussion around rate hikes and task forces.

Known Unknowns (EM) 5

Euro area: Inflation likely past its peak Sunday 7

Headline inflation in the Euro area is possibly past its peak already. After incorporating Monday 7

weekly pump prices from the European Commission, we see June HICP at 2.8% (with Tuesday 8

some upside risks of a round up to 2.9%), with core at 2.4% core. The ECB Sintra Forum Wednesday 9

(Mon-Wed) will be source of a plethora of headlines from ECB and BoE speakers. Thursday 10

Friday 11

Japan: Tankan survey to show softer sentiment Sunday 12

We expect business sentiment to weaken modestly across sectors, reflecting elevated Monday 12

Middle East tensions. With responses anchored to the June 11 reference date, the survey Tuesday 12

is unlikely to capture the ceasefire and decline in oil prices. Investment plans are likely to Wednesday 13

remain firm, reflecting strong corporate profits and structural investment demand. Thursday 14

New Zealand: RBNZ to start hiking Friday 14

Research Analysts 19