Rakuten Group (4755.T): Updating forecasts - setting TP to reflect fintech reorganization

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Rakuten Group (4755.T): Updating forecasts - setting TP to reflect fintech reorganization

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01 Jul 2026 11:19:37 ET │ 17 pages

Rakuten Group (4755.T)

Updating forecasts - setting TP to reflect fintech reorganization

CITI'S TAKE

We revise our earnings forecasts to reflect FY12/26 Q1 results. Furthermore,

the scheme for the reorganization of fintech, centered on Rakuten Bank, has

already been announced, we set our target price based on the capital Neutral / High Risk

structure after the fintech reorganization. Since the value of the fintech Price (01 Jul 26 15:30) ¥730.8

business will manifest itself in Rakuten Bank's share price, the movement of

Rakuten Bank's share price will likely affect the Rakuten Group share price. Target price ¥840.0↓

We set our target price using an SoTP method to reflect the realization of the from ¥950.0

fintech business's value. Our investment rating remains Neutral/High Risk Expected share price return 14.9%and we set our target price at ¥840 (¥950 before).

Expected dividend yield 0.0%

Fintech reorganization scheme finalized — Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank Expected total return 14.9%

announced the fintech reorganization arrangements on May 20. They are scheduled Market Cap ¥1,593,222Mto take effect on October 1. Rakuten Group's final equity stake in Rakuten Bank will

be 49.95% on a voting rights basis and 72.35% on an economic ownership basis, US$9,860M

including the preferred. Rakuten Bank's share price of ¥6,480 (May 20 close) before

this announcement fell to ¥4,827 at the May 22 close two days later. We believe the

dilution including that resulting from the preferred, was viewed negatively.

Rakuten Mobile pushes capital investment — Rakuten Mobile is steadily growing Price Performance

subscribers and profits continue to improve.