Vivara (VIVA3.SA) 2Q26 Preview: De-Risk Ahead as Commodity Tailwinds Come Into Focus; Reinforce Buy and Launch Positive 90-D Catalyst Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Vivara (VIVA3.SA) 2Q26 Preview: De-Risk Ahead as Commodity Tailwinds Come Into Focus; Reinforce Buy and Launch Positive 90-D Catalyst Watch

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01 Jul 2026 18:51:28 ET │ 21 pages

Vivara (VIVA3.SA)

2Q26 Preview: De-Risk Ahead as Commodity Tailwinds Come Into

Focus; Reinforce Buy and Launch Positive 90-D Catalyst Watch

CITI'S TAKE

VIVA is scheduled to report 2Q26 results on August 5th (AMC). VIVA is down Buy

20% since reporting 1Q26, down more than 30% YTD, and remains a heavily

shorted name. We believe this reflects investor concerns on top-line trends Catalyst Watch: Upside

following 1Q26 miss (particularly in Life) and higher OPEX. In the meantime, Price (01 Jul 26 18:00) R$22.52

not only has gross margin been better than expected, but we saw input price Target price R$32.00↓relief (since late Jan peak, gold and silver prices have fallen ~25% and

~50%, respectively). Even after incorporating EBITDA/earnings ~5% below from R$34.00

VA consensus for 2Q, our earnings are barely unchanged. At this level, the Expected share price return 42.1%

stock trades at ~9.5x/~7.5x 2026/2027 P/E. Given this disconnect

Expected dividend yield 3.0%between the recent price action and new COGS reality (with upcoming

results serving as a de-risk), we launch a 90-day positive CW watch. We Expected total return 45.1%

reiterate our Buy on VIVA. Market Cap R$5,319M

US$1,027M

Look Past 2Q26 — We are modeling SSS for Vivara/Life at 9.2/4.0%, from

10.8/6.2% in 1Q26. We remain cautious with Life seeing how aggressive pricing

remains, especially at the online ops. Mgmt. even signals that the brand is not yet

reflective of the commercial adjustments needed to reignite growth. The positives:

we remain positive on gross margin and model it at 71%, better than 1Q26 and Price Performance