China Modest improvement with sectoral divergence

Research evidence excerpt

China Modest improvement with sectoral divergence

FICC Research

Economics

30 June 2026

China

Modest improvement with sectoral

divergence

June PMI details and recent high-frequency indicators Ying Zhang

continue to point to a bifurcated growth pattern, with +852 2903 2652

ying.zhang3@barclays.com

resilience in high-tech and export-oriented sectors Barclays Bank, Hong Kong

contrasting with weakness in traditional industries and Yingke Zhou

domestic demand. Construction activity stayed weak despite +852 2903 2653 yingke.zhou@barclays.com

faster LGSB issuance. Barclays Bank, Hong Kong

Jian Chang

• May NBS manufacturing PMI: 50.3 +852 2903 2654

jian.chang@barclays.com

• Bloomberg consensus forecast (Barclays): 50.1 (50.1) Barclays Bank, Hong Kong

• May NBS manufacturing PMI: 50.0

China’s NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June from 50.0 in May, above both our forecast

and consensus of 50.1. The production sub-index edged higher, while both new orders and new

export orders improved and moved back into expansion territory. The pickup suggests a modest

improvement in manufacturing activity in June, supported by resilient demand for high-tech

products, lower energy prices, and a normalization in production following holiday-related

disruptions in May. That said, the headline PMI remained only slightly above the 50 threshold,

while underlying sector performance continued to diverge.

Sector performance remained uneven. The June PMI details continued to point to a bifurcated

trend, with high-tech industries outperforming traditional sectors. High-tech manufacturing PMI

rose to 53.5 from 52.9 in May, reaching its highest level in more than two years and remaining in

expansion for a 17th consecutive month. Equipment manufacturing also strengthened to a

three-year high of 52.5.