Cook stays at Fed: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

Cook stays at Fed: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

30 June 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Cook stays at Fed

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

+1 212 526 3497

US CPI: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Lisa Cook on Monday. Despite an exception created

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

for the Fed, the court expanded the executive's power to fire officials at other federal agencies in BCI, US

a separate ruling (Bloomberg, June 29, 2026). Real yields rallied on a carry-adjusted basis on

Apostolos ApostolouMonday: 2y -3.0bp, 5y -1.8bp, 10y -1.5bp, 30y -1.0bp. The breakeven curve rallied on a carry/

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RBOB-adjusted basis: 1y +0.7bp, 2y +2.3bp, 5y +2.0bp, 10y +1.1bp, 30y +0.3bp. Forward

apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

breakevens advanced: 1y1y +3.6bp, 2y3y +1.8bp. Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd, in BCI, US

observance of the July 4th holiday, and have an early close on Thursday, July 2nd. Today is

month-end and Bloomberg expects the duration extension of the 1-30y TIPS index to be -0.03y

for both Series-B and Series-L. This week, we discuss a tactical long view, expressed via 5y5y CPI

swaps. We also examine the impact of AI on inflation.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: Spain preliminary HICP surprised to the upside while Belgium

surprised to the downside. French, Italian, and German flash figures come today. Real yields

modestly rallied in the front on Monday: 2y -2bp, 5y -2bp, 10y -1bp, 30y +1bp. Breakevens

rallied: 1y +6bp, 2y +4bp, 5y +3bp, 10y +1bp, 30y +0bp. HICPx also advanced: 1y +6bp, 2y +4bp,

5y +2bp, 10y +1bp, 30y +1bp. In forward space, 1y1y was 2bp higher and 2y3y 1bp higher.