Americas FX Morning Bullets

Research evidence excerpt

Americas FX Morning Bullets

Currencies ● Global

30 June 2026

USD-JPY has pushed above 162.00, and we still think Japan’s Ministry of Finance is

likely to intervene at some point, but the market now looks to be operating in a higher

range. The official response has been noticeably less forceful than on 30 April, which suggests

the authorities may be tolerating a bit more JPY weakness before actively intervening. We can

think of a few plausible reasons for this slightly higher bar for intervention. First, the short-term

“fair” value of USD-JPY has likely shifted higher alongside the recent rise in the DXY index to

a one-year high (Chart 8). Second, oil prices have fallen, so curbing imported inflation is slightly

less urgent compared to March-May. Third, the MoF’s intervention tactics tend to involve

surprising the market, although we have observed a pattern of the next wave of intervention

taking place at a slightly higher level compared to a recent previous bout. Fourth, the MoF may

be anticipating that speculative JPY positions may build to even more extreme levels, which

would enhance the impact of its intervention. Fifth, the MoF may be waiting for a downside

surprise in US data (eg, payrolls on 2 July) to enhance the sustainability of its intervention

(see JPY: A new and higher range, 30 June 2026).

The NZD is stronger against most of G10 FX as local activity data showed further signs of

recovery. A move higher in risk assets overnight and this morning is likely aiding the move, as

the pickup in activity outlook and business confidence surveys gave further evidence that the

severity of the spillover impact from the conflict in the Middle East has reduced. In its May MPS,

the RBNZ noted that the pre-conflict economic recovery had been hindered by the impact of