MENA Financials: Key ideas ahead of the 2Q 26 earnings season

Research evidence excerpt

MENA Financials: Key ideas ahead of the 2Q 26 earnings season

30 June 2026

MENA Financials EquitiesFinancials

Key ideas ahead of the 2Q 26 earnings season Middle East North Africa

◆ We forecast net income for the MENA Financials we cover to Aybek Islamov*, CFA

grow 1% y/y on average in 2Q 26, in-line with 1Q 26 y/y growth Analyst, EEMEA Financials HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai branch

aybek.islamov@hsbc.com

◆ The results season can be a positive catalyst for CIB Egypt, +971 4 423 6921

AlRajhi, and ADCB; we group stocks by five investment themes Bhavin Rathod*, CFA

Analyst, MENA Financials

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

◆ Upgrade FAB and UIHC to Buy from Hold; MENA financials bhavinkumarrathod@hsbc.co.in

trade at 2027e P/E of 10.9x and a sector yield of 5% +91 80 4550 2993

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

CIB Egypt (CBKD LI, USD2.58, Buy, TP USD3.54) should report 15% y/y increase in not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

net income in 2Q 26, largely due to healthy asset growth (24% y/y), and NIM to contract

15bp yoy but remain stable qoq, we estimate. We forecast cost of risk charges at 31bp

vs a release of 38bp and 34bp in 2Q 25 and 1Q 26, respectively. CIB Egypt remains a

high-quality compounder, with higher-for-longer rates supporting NIM. A pivot to

commercial lending/fees plus strong operating leverage drives 23% NAV CAGR

(2025-28e). The stock trades at 2027e TNAV of 1.2x vs ROTE of 29.2%.

Al Rajhi Bank (RJHI AB, SAR66.30, Buy, TP SAR84.00) should report 16% y/y net

income growth in 2Q 26, we estimate. Key earnings drivers centre on NIM improvement

(HSBCe 41bp y/y, the top-end of management’s FY26 guidance). Improving asset yield