UST regime post FOMC: TYCCLES says we are in "Moderate sell-off"

Research evidence excerpt

UST regime post FOMC: TYCCLES says we are in "Moderate sell-off"

30 June 2026

UST regime post FOMC DataStrategyScience & Macro

United States

TYCCLES says we are in “Moderate sell-off“

◆ TYCCLES, our UST regime model has transitioned into a Shiva Joon, CFA

“Moderate sell-off” Data Scientist HSBC Bank plc

shiva.joon@hsbcib.com

◆ Moderate sell-off sees yields generally drift higher, on +44 20 7991 1356

average by 5-10bps across the curve Duncan Toms*, CFA

Multi-Asset Strategist

HSBC Bank plc

◆ Moderate sell-off regime is stickier than max sell-off and likely duncan.toms@hsbc.com

to be the dominant regime for a month once transitioned into +44 20 7991 3025

Dhiraj Narula, CFA

US Rates Strategist

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

TYCCLES transitions into moderate sell-off dhiraj.narula@us.hsbc.com +1 212 525 0210

Recently, we published our latest machine learning based regime model for UST: Mark McDonald

TYCCLES – TY CyCLE Selector (see, TYCCLES says UST max sell-off, 3 June Head of AI and Data Science

2026). The model helps us distinguish between four UST regimes and identify which mark.mcdonald@hsbcib.com

regime we are currently in. TYCCLES has been in a UST max sell-off/bear flattening +44 20 7991 3119

regime since the start of US Iran conflict. However on 15 June 2026, TYCCLES has Max Kettner*, CFA

Chief Multi-Asset Strategist

been signalling that we are in a moderate sell off regime. HSBC Bank plc

maximilian.l.kettner@hsbc.com

What’s driving the new regime? +44 20 7991 5045

Although yields at the front end and the belly of the UST curve have come down

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

slightly from recent highs, they remain elevated versus the start of the year, and also not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations