Vipshop Holdings (VIPS.N): 2Q26E Preview - Expect Low-end of Guidance with Inline Margins

Research evidence excerpt

Vipshop Holdings (VIPS.N): 2Q26E Preview - Expect Low-end of Guidance with Inline Margins

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30 Jun 2026 11:10:59 ET │ 16 pages

Vipshop Holdings (VIPS.N)

2Q26E Preview- Expect Low-end of Guidance with Inline Margins

CITI'S TAKE

We expect VIPS likely to report 2Q26 result around mid-Aug. VIPS guided

2Q26 revs to 0 to -5% yoy or Rmb24.5-25.8bn. Given a muted 6.18, while

Shanshan outlets have experienced more resilient sales growth, overall Neutral

online sales remain subdued. To be conservative we lower our 2Q26 revs Price (29 Jun 26 16:00) US$12.97

slightly and now model 4.6% yoy decline (vs -4% yoy previously) while

retaining NM unchanged at 7.7%. Heading into summer months, depending Target price US$13.00↓

on the leisure activities and spending willingness, July sales may or may not from US$15.70

be weaker than June. That said, while we expect VIPS to guide 3Q26 to be Expected share price return 0.2%0-5% yoy, in line with our/consensus forecast, if consumption further

weakens, it is likely that 3Q26 guidance could be flat to -5% yoy. Post Expected dividend yield 4.8%

estimates tweak, our TP is adjusted lower to US$13.00 (from US$15.70), Expected total return 5.0%

based on 5x (from 6x) our revised 2027E EPS of US$2.61. Maintain Neutral Market Cap US$6,229Mas we see limited catalysts.

Earnings revisions —We slightly tweak our 2Q26 revs and profit assumption to

expect the lower end of the guidance range. For 2026-2028E, we have revised our

Price Performancerevs/non-GAAP NP by -0.1%/+0.3%, -0.1%/-0.7% and -0.1%/-0.7% to reflect a

slightly more cautious macro and consumption outlook. (RIC: VIPS.N, BB: VIPS US)

2Q26E preview — We model total net revs to -4.6% yoy and -7.4% qoq to

Rmb24.62bn, (vs. Bloomberg consensus of Rmb24.78bn), and non-GAAP NP of