June PMI: back in expansion as price pressures ease

Research evidence excerpt

June PMI: back in expansion as price pressures ease

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

China Macro 30 June 2026

June PMI: back in expansion as price

Deyun Ou pressures ease

Economist

+852-2203-6166

China’s manufacturing PMI returned to expansion in June, rising by 0.3ppt to

50.3. Production and demand improved in tandem: the output PMI edged up by Yi Xiong, Ph.D.

0.2ppt to 51.4, while the new orders PMI increased sharply by 1.3ppts to 51.2. Chief Economist

+852-2203-6139 External demand remained an important support for the manufacturing sector,

with the new export orders PMI rebounding sharply by 1.5ppts to 50.1.

Easing price pressures from lower oil prices may also have helped demand. The

input price PMI fell by 6.3ppts to 54.2, while the output-price PMI declined by

3.7ppts to 48.2, the first month-on-month price decline since year-beginning.

Easing oil supply concerns may also have affected inventory accumulation

behavior, with raw-material inventories and finished goods inventories falling by

0.2ppt and 1.6ppts, respectively.

Non-manufacturing sector readings improved modestly. The services business

activity PMI edged up by 0.1ppt to 50.4, remaining in expansion for a second

consecutive month. This may reflect some recovery in travel-related activity on

the back of lower oil prices, while continued momentum in tier-1 city property

markets may also have contributed. The construction business activity PMI rose

by 0.2ppt to 49.0, but remained below the 50 threshold.

Selected high-frequency charts:

▪ Industrial product prices have continued to increase. Although

international crude oil prices started to decline in mid-June and have now

fallen back to pre-war levels, the pass-through to domestic prices takes

time.