US Chemical Shipments Flat. PE Price Decreases Likely in June & July

Research evidence excerpt

US Chemical Shipments Flat. PE Price Decreases Likely in June & July

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Chemicals Railcar & 29 June 2026

Petrochemical

Update

US Chemical Shipments Flat. PE Price

David Begleiter Decreases Likely in June & July

Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5473

Railcar loadings 4-week moving average down 0.3%; Weekly loadings up 0.5%.

Loadings up 2.9% YTD Emily Fusco

The 4-week moving average of US chemical railcar loadings was down 0.3% in Research Associate

+1-212-250-5162 Week #24 (ended 6/20/26), same as the prior week. The more volatile weekly

loadings measure was up 0.5% YoY (vs. down 0.4% the prior week) and up 1.6%

sequentially (vs. up 1.3% in the prior week).

Spot ethylene flat at 22 c/lb. Margins down 1 c/lb to 9 c/lb

US spot ethylene prices for June delivery were roughly last week at 22.0 c/lb

(midpoint of the weekly range of 21.50-22.50 c/lb). This is versus spot prices of

17.6 c/lb prior to the start of the US-Iran military conflict and versus the May

contract price of 35.50 c/lb. Deals for July spot ethylene were in the range of

21.50-22.50 last week. US average spot ethylene margins decreased 0.5 c/lb last

week to 9.2 c/lb. With strong demand and stable production costs, US spot

ethylene margins are expected to remain healthy through the end of the year.

Polyethylene contract prices forecasted down in June/July and August

Despite producer announcements for June US polyethylene contract price

increases of 10-20 c/lb, US polyethylene contract prices are now forecasted (by

Chemical Markets Analytics {CMA}) to decrease a combined 25 c/lb in June and

July and 10 c/lb in August as the market is returning to pre-conflict conditions

much faster than initially expected. This includes i) record levels of inventory build