LATAM Today: June 29, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: June 29, 2026

Economics Research

29 June 2026 | 8:28AM EDT

RamosARGENTINA Alberto | +1(212)357-5768

alberto.ramos@gs.com

Data This Week: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

ArmellaToday: Economic Activity Index (Apr); we forecast a 3.0% year-on-year increase in Sergio | +1(212)357-9077

economic activity in April. The performance of the economy was better than sergio.armella@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

expected in the first quarter of 2026 with the economy growing 2.3% yoy. Activity in Santiago Tellez

the primary sector continues to drive growth while the secondary sector and the +1(212)855-0367 |

santiago.tellez@gs.com

more labor-intensive tertiary sector are lagging. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

SA

BRAZIL

Small Deterioration of 2027 Inflation Expectations; Stable End-2026/27 Selic Rate

Bottom Line: Inflation expectations were broadly stable in the latest central bank survey

with the exception of a small uptick in expectations for 2027. Inflation expectations for

2026 remained at 5.33%, interrupting a long sequence of fifteen consecutive weeks of

rising inflation expectations totaling 142bp. Inflation expectations for 2027/28/29 are

tracking at 4.17%(+2bp)/3.70%/3.50%; all above the 3.0% target. The median

expectation for the Selic rate for end-2026/27/28 is now at

14.00%/12.00/10.50%(+25bp). The expectations for 2026/27 real GDP growth sit at

1.99%(+1bp)/1.68%(-2bp). The median expectation for the primary fiscal balance of

2026/27/28 remains in negative (deficit) territory, contrary to the government’s targets of

non-negative prints, attesting to the low credibility and weak anchoring effect of the fiscal

framework. The nominal fiscal deficit is expected to remain deep in the red (over 7%) over

the medium term: 8.70%/8.10%/7.60%/7.20% for 2026/27/28/29.

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