Americas FX Morning Bullets

Research evidence excerpt

Americas FX Morning Bullets

Currencies ● Global

29 June 2026

The NZD is outperforming in G10 FX this morning ahead of important local survey data

tonight. Global equity indices may not be giving a clear risk-on signal this morning, but higher

US equity futures are likely aiding the NZD’s move. The currency has underperformed its typical

beta to global equities recently. One way the NZD can make up the lost ground is through a

hawkish outcome at the RBNZ meeting next week (8 July), with markets currently pricing a

c70% chance of a 25bps move higher in the OCR. Tonight’s local activity data (activity outlook

and business confidence) showed signs of bottoming out in last month’s print. Signs of a further

recovery may ease some concern at the central bank regarding the spillover impact of the

conflict in the Middle East, given New Zealand’s high oil-GDP intensity. We remain positive on

the NZD and believe the RBNZ’s stance can benefit the currency from a rates differential

perspective in the coming months.

This week in LatAm, the main focus will be on Colombia’s rate meeting tomorrow (and

minutes on Friday), along with other activity data. We expect Colombia’s central bank

(BanRep) to hike the policy rate by 75bps to 12.00% tomorrow, a larger move than market

consensus and market pricing. Despite a possible hawkish surprise, we could see comments in

the press conference suggesting most of the tightening cycle is behind us, more of a dovish

signal. The hike should nonetheless be positive for COP, and we see further gains for the

currency on the back of a likely reform agenda under President-elect De La Espriella’s

administration. We await news on further cabinet appointments this week. On the activity side,

the main print to watch will be Brazil’s May IP data on Thursday.