Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP US): Hold: A new opportunity to find the right CEO

Research evidence excerpt

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP US): Hold: A new opportunity to find the right CEO

a fresh look at the strategy and outlook. We expect the new candidate to be 52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

thoroughly vetted for a record of commitment, demand creation, and strong 39.00

leadership of a successful company. 31.00

We see a better operating outlook: KDP has strong momentum in CSDs, energy 23.00

drinks and hydration. Marketing and investment continue to grow. For coffee, pricing 06/25 12/25 06/26

Target price: 37.00 High: 35.20 Low: 25.30 Current: 33.40

initiatives are helping, but we expect volume growth to remain under pressure with

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

sequential improvement into year-end. On the cost side, KDP is lapping peak cost

pressures from high green coffee hedges and tariffs. We expect inventory

Sorabh Daga*

adjustments and reduced pod shipments to reverse and improve. In the International Analyst, Global Beverages, LatAm Food

segment, after a slow start in Mexico, we expect volume recovery. HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

sorabh.k.daga@hsbc.co.in

+91 80 4550 2627

FY26 guidance and phasing: Management guidance for net sales is USD25.9–26.4bn,

Carlos Laboy

which includes USD8.5bn–8.7bn from the acquisition of JDE Peet’s. It expects revenues Global Beverage Head, LatAm Food Analyst

for the underlying KDP business to grow in the range of 4–6% on a constant-currency HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

carlos.a.laboy@us.hsbc.com

basis and EPS to grow at a low double-digit rate (constant currency) for 2026. Given +1 212 525 6972

phasing and the cost outlook, it expects EPS growth in Q2 to be in the high-single-digit Santiago Bringas*

range with acceleration in the back half as costs improve and synergies build. We Analyst, Global Beverages, LatAm Food