European Semiconductors: IFX/STM: From trough to throttle

Research evidence excerpt

European Semiconductors: IFX/STM: From trough to throttle

29 June 2026

Equities European Semiconductors Semiconductors & Equipment

IFX/STM: From trough to throttle

◆ Analog upcycle strengthening with more price hikes incoming Adithya Metuku*, CFA

Senior Global Technology Analyst

◆ Higher volumes and pricing = faster profitability rebound HSBC Bank plc

adithya.metuku@hsbc.com

◆ Reiterate Buys, raise TPs: IFX to EUR107 (from EUR68); +44 203 268 2960

STM to EUR84 (from EUR53) KalpeshAssociateMahadik*, CFA

Bangalore

Data points suggest upcycle is strengthening: Recent datapoints suggest the

analog upcycle is strengthening, with multiple analog peers signalling further price * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

increases. We see this as consistent with demand surprising positively (with price

rises likely to flow through at different cadences by end-market). Higher volumes

should help underutilisation charges normalise faster than expected, supporting a

quicker recovery in profitability. We raise our estimates at Infineon and STM and see

scope for upside to revenue and margin expectations through 2026 and into 2027. As

the upturn progresses, management teams may start to think about upgrading the

profitability metrics embedded in their target operating models.

Infineon – raise TP to EUR107 (from EUR68): We see a second round of price

increases (broader than the first, per our discussions) as an important signal on both

demand (driven by AI) and pricing power. The implied cumulative impact could be

meaningful: Infineon now believes its upcoming Dresden module could support

cEUR6bn of revenue at full capacity (vs EUR5bn previously disclosed), which