Macro headwinds. Copper tariffs. Gold update. Valuations

Research evidence excerpt

Macro headwinds. Copper tariffs. Gold update. Valuations

Deutsche Bank

Research

Global Industry Date

28 June 2026

Metals & Mining Metals & Mining

Metals & Mining Periodical

Macro headwinds. Copper tariffs. Gold

update. Valuations

Liam Fitzpatrick

Macro headwinds near term Research Analyst

The sector has lost momentum in recent weeks after a strong run year to date, as +44-20-754-13233

macro headwinds have increasingly weighed on sentiment. A more hawkish Fed

Bastian Synagowitz

has driven a stronger US dollar, pressuring both base and precious metals. At the Research Analyst

same time, China macro data remains weak, with ongoing property sector softness +41-44-227-3377

and subdued domestic demand weighing on iron ore prices (iron ore margins fall to

Cody Hayden

multi-year lows). Against this backdrop, mining equities have suffered from profit

Research Analyst

taking and de risking following strong performance into early June, with a

+44-20-754-13230

noticeable breakdown in correlation with AI data centre indices in recent weeks.

We believe fundamentals remain strong, but weaker seasonal demand and a firmer

dollar present near term headwinds.

US copper tariffs: policy paths

The market is still eagerly (and nervously) awaiting an update from the US

government on copper tariffs. The President's Proclamation stated that by 30 June

2026, the Commerce Secretary shall provide an update on domestic copper

markets, after which a tariff decision will be made on refined copper. We recently

published a report outlining three possible policy paths: (1) a phased introduction

of tariffs (15% in 2027 rising to 30% in 2028); this is the market's base case and

would be positive for copper near-term. (2) Immediate tariffs; this would effectively