Steel Spread Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

Steel Spread Tracker

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Industry Date

Austria 29 June 2026

Germany Steel Spread

Luxembourg Periodical

Tracker

Steel

Price divergence between US and

Europe continues

Bastian Synagowitz

Trade policy supports Western market prices, demand continues to be main Research Analyst

concern +41-44-227-3377

The recent dynamics in the Middle East have started to weigh on sentiment and the

negative impact on demand continues to be the main concern in the near term. Liam Fitzpatrick

Research Analyst

Nevertheless, Western prices and margins remain strong so far. Although spot

+44-20-754-13233

prices have been slipping, the EU's plans for a significant step-up in trade protection

should ultimately support a sustained rebound in European spreads, with the Cody Hayden

impact from CBAM adding to that. Hence, we keep our constructive view on the Research Analyst

sector. Our top picks in carbon steel are: Voestalpine (VOES.VI; Buy; EUR41.86; TP: +44-20-754-13230

EUR60), which remains the most solid equity story, based on steady FCF generation

(despite peak decarb capex), self-help and an undervalued rail-infrastructure

business; and thyssenkrupp (TKAG.DE, Buy; EUR10.26; TP: EUR14.50) on possible

Figure 1: HRC prices

catalysts and policy tailwinds in steel. We recently upgraded the stock (link). In

stainless steel, we prefer Aperam (APAM.AS; Buy; EUR42.78; TP: EUR65), based on 2,400USD/t German American Chinese exports Italian

its reversion potential and organic growth prospects, coupled with its strong mid- 2,200

2,000

cycle FCF-generating ability and shareholder returns. 1,800

1,600

1,400

N.European HRC prices down, average spreads still above mid-cycle levels 1,200

Last week, indications for northern European HRC prices were down EUR3/t to the 1,000800