EM Credit Focus: Where is the value?

Research evidence excerpt

EM Credit Focus: Where is the value?

Deutsche Bank

Research

Global Emerging Markets Date

29 June 2026

EM Credit Focus

Where is the value?

Christian Wietoska

We provide our weekly EM Sovereign Credit Valuation Snapshot. This snapshot

Strategist

integrates our DB-adjusted credit score with our proprietary credit valuation model. +44-20-754-52424

This integrated model facilitates direct comparisons of EM countries, enabling an

assessment of their attractiveness relative to peers and historical dislocations. Yigit Onay

Economist

Furthermore, the output provides a back-tested relative value (RV) tool predicated

+44-20-75410227

on valuation ranks of individual credit names – see HERE for the initiation report.

Naman Mishra

This top-down model is accompanied by our Eurobond valuation tables. These Research Associate

tables are based on a bottom-up credit spread curve model that incorporates both

theoretical fair value and a historical "pickup" analysis to identify undervalued/

overvalued bonds. For the initiation report and the framework, please see here: A

quantitative toolkit for selecting EM Eurobonds. This combination offers a

comprehensive approach, encompassing both a top-down perspective through the

EM Sovereign Credit Valuation Snapshot and a bottom-up methodology for

identifying optimal bond opportunities along the curves, guided by the structural

insights derived from the top-down model. We anticipate ongoing adjustments to

further enhance the robustness and presentation format of this framework.

Latest Results

n Our valuation model identifies Senegal, Türkiye, Ecuador, Kuwait and

Saudi Arabia as the most attractive countries.

n Conversely, the model indicates Uruguay, Malaysia, Azerbaijan, South

Korea, Hungary and Egypt as the least attractive countries.