Solid Rocket Motor Dual Sourcing Sensitivity Analysis

Research evidence excerpt

Solid Rocket Motor Dual Sourcing Sensitivity Analysis

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold L3Harris Technologies 29 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Hold

United States LHX.N LHX US Price target (USD) 300.00 Price at 26 Jun 26 291.25

52-week range 378.48 – 246.65

Industrials

Aerospace & Defense Valuation & Risks

Electronics

Solid Rocket Motor Dual Sourcing Sensitivity

Analysis ScottResearchDeuschleAnalyst

+1-212-250-2014

We recently wrote about the solid rocket motor dual-sourcing requirements

Sam Desai, CFA introduced in the Senate version of the 2027 NDAA (see here). These Research Associate

requirements applied to PAC-3 and SM6, where solid rocket motors are currently +1-212-250-9761

sole-source to LHX’s MSL segment. While the act is not law, and these provisions

could change in the final bill, they highlight the direction of the US government’s

long-term interests, and are aligned with the actions that the missile primes

themselves are proactively taking with respect to multi-sourcing (example here).

Given this shift toward dual-sourcing intent across both primes and their

government customer, this note provides a sensitivity analysis to understand the

impact on growth within MSL’s solid rocket motor business. Specifically, it

provides the math on dollar sales in 2032 for the solid rocket motor business

under various end-demand growth and dual-sourcing scenarios. The sensitivity

multipliers are: how much does end-demand grow, and what percent of end-

demand is ultimately served by new vendors. It also calculates the relevant

revenue CAGRs under the various scenarios. Baseline revenue figures (Figure 1)

are based on the current sole-source SRM revenue that we think MSL generates