CEEMEA Inflation Monitor: An unexpected reprieve

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Inflation Monitor: An unexpected reprieve

Deutsche Bank

Research

Global Emerging Markets Date

29 June 2026

CEEMEA Inflation

Monitor

An unexpected reprieve

Danelee Masia

We present our June CEEMEA inflation monitor report. In this monthly report, we

Economist

provide a comprehensive overview of country-level inflation developments, +27-11-775-7267

including their key drivers. We also provide our take on the near- and medium-term

inflation outlooks and distinguish between common global and idiosyncratic Christian Wietoska

Strategist

drivers, including a sensitivity analysis based on our FX and oil price pass-through

+44-20-754-52424

estimations. Owing to less frequent coverage, we have excluded Russia from this

report. Thirteen countries are included in our report: Czech Republic, Egypt, Twisha Roy

Ghana, Hungary, Israel, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Poland, Romania, South Africa, Economist

Türkiye, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.. +44-20-754-52413

Yigit Onay

Key findings: Economist

+44-20-75410227

n The inflationary shockwave gathering force across the region hit an

unexpected air pocket in May. In a sharp reversal from the previous Anna Friedemann

month’s acceleration, aggregate CEEMEA inflation surprised significantly Research Analyst

to the downside, easing to 8.9% YoY from 9.0% and coming in well below +44-20-754-11816

our 9.3% forecast. This benign outcome was driven by broad-based

Peter Sidorov, CFA

downside surprises—with Nigeria, Ghana, and Poland delivering the

Senior Economist

largest misses—and provided a moment of welcome, albeit likely

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temporary, relief. In fact, while inflation did rise in five countries compared

to April, Türkiye was the only one to register a meaningful upside surprise. Naman Mishra