Capital One Financial Corporation (COF.N): 2Q26 Model Update - Healthy Quarter with Improving Credit Trends; First Look at Brex Impacts

Research evidence excerpt

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF.N): 2Q26 Model Update - Healthy Quarter with Improving Credit Trends; First Look at Brex Impacts

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29 Jun 2026 16:05:00 ET │ 14 pages

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF.N)

2Q26 Model Update - Healthy Quarter with Improving Credit Trends;

First Look at Brex Impacts

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (29 Jun 26 12:30) US$202.50 Heading into earnings, sentiment on COF screens is relatively debated (Fig

Target price US$310.00 3), with the credit card players lagging our broader universe YTD. April and

May master trust data pointed to improving credit trends, and recent Expected share price return 53.1%

industry conference commentary was broadly constructive. Into the Expected dividend yield 1.6%

quarter, we see focus centered around expenses along with first-look at Expected total return 54.7%

impacts from the Brex acquisition. Our full-year expense estimates are Market Cap US$124,744M

~1% above consensus, reflecting a more conservative view on integration

and investment spend. Longer term, we continue to see attractive value

and EPS upside, although we understand the more cautious near-term

narrative of beginning signs of consumer stress, albeit broader industry Benjamin GerlingerAC

commentary still mentions consumers are resilient. +1-212-816-3538

benjamin.gerlinger@citi.com

Estimate Changes — Our 2026E EPS decreases 40c to $16.30 (vs. FactSet Mikhail Mrotchek

consensus of $19.70), 2027E EPS decreases $1.00 to $21.50 (vs. FactSet consensus +1-212-816-2345

of $24.36), and 2028E EPS increases 45c to $27.65 (see Figure 1 for more detail on misha.mrotchek@citi.com

estimate revisions). COF reports 2Q26 earnings on July 21, 2026.

Kaili Wang, CFA

+1-716-730-7408

kaili.wang@citi.com

EPS (US$) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FC Cons VA Cons