Softer long-term UMich inflation expectations: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

Softer long-term UMich inflation expectations: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

29 June 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Softer long-term UMich inflation

expectations

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global Jonathan Hill, CFA

inflation markets. +1 212 526 3497

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

BCI, US

US CPI: UMich 5-10y inflation expectations were 3.3%, vs 3.4% preliminary. 1y inflation printed

Apostolos Apostolou

at 4.6%, in line with the preliminary figure. Brent continued its fall to $72/bbl and WTI to $69/bbl +1 212 526 5051

(Bloomberg, June 26, 2026). Our commodities team lowered its Brent forecast to $96/bbl for apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

2026 and $85/bbl for 2027. Real yields rallied on a carry-adjusted basis on Friday: 2y -1.0bp, 5y BCI, US

-3.1bp, 10y -2.6bp, 30y +0.0bp. Most of the breakeven curve rallied on a carry/RBOB-adjusted

basis: 1y -1.1bp, 2y +0.9bp, 5y +1.0bp, 10y +1.0bp, 30y +0.8bp. Forward breakevens advanced:

1y1y +2.4bp, 2y3y +1.7bp, 5y5y +1.1bp, 10y20y +0.7bp. Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3rd,

in observance of the July 4th holiday, and have an early close on Thursday, July 2nd. Tomorrow

is month-end and Bloomberg expects the duration extension of the 1-30y TIPS index to be

-0.03y for both Series-B and Series-L.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: ECB's 1y CPI expectations were 3.5% vs 3.9% survey, while 3y CPI

expectations were 2.9% vs 2.8% survey. With the deceleration in energy inflation, our

economists forecast euro area HICP inflation in June at 0.1% m/m NSA and 2.9% y/y, down

0.3pp from May. Real yields modestly rallied in the front on Friday: 2y -1bp, 5y -2bp, 10y +1bp,

30y +0bp. Breakevens were largely unchanged past the front: 1y -6bp, 2y -1bp, 5y +0bp, 10y