USMCA 2.0: stricter Mexico RVC, limited impact; U.S./Canada unclear, Honda solid

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USMCA 2.0: stricter Mexico RVC, limited impact; U.S./Canada unclear, Honda solid

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Japan Automobiles/Auto Parts

USMCA 2.0: stricter Mexico RVC, limited

impact; U.S./Canada unclear, Honda solid

Industry Overview

25 June 2026

USMCA 2.0 may be undecided in July; focus on Honda Equity

Talks on the USMCA review are increasingly unlikely to reach agreement among the Japan

three countries by the original July 1 deadline. Bilateral discussions between the U.S. and Autos/Auto Parts

Mexico are scheduled for three rounds (May 28–29, June 16–17, and the week of July

20), while U.S.–Canada negotiations have yet to fully commence, with some reports ShiroResearchSakamakiAnalyst >>

suggesting a final outcome could be pushed to this autumn or later. In the near term, BofAS Japan

+81 3 6225 7919

implications for Japanese OEMs include: (1) limited direct earnings impact from tighter shiro.sakamaki@bofa.com

rules of origin currently under discussion between the U.S. and Mexico, and (2) despite Tatsuya Asada >>

uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Canada negotiations, a focus on Honda, which is expected Research Analyst

BofAS Japan

to deliver strong 1Q results. tatsuya.asada@bofa.com

U.S./Mexico RVC tightening discussed; limited impact AikaResearchKondoAnalyst>>

Little progress appears to have been made in the June 16–17 U.S.–Mexico talks, but aika.kondo@bofa.com

reports following late-May discussions indicated that the U.S. proposed raising the

regional value content (RVC) requirement for finished vehicles from 75% to 82%,

including a 50% U.S.-origin threshold, which weighed somewhat on auto stocks in early USMCA: United States–Mexico–

June. However, even for Nissan, which exports a large volume from Mexico to the U.S., Canada Agreement