Global Economic Viewpoint: Mid-Year review: Hydration Break

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economic Viewpoint: Mid-Year review: Hydration Break

ort cycle in Asia, while lower oil prices boost growth mildly in LatAm: Politics driving the macro-outlook 37

developed markets in 2027. For the US, cheaper gas and capex will likely drive a strong Key forecasts 44

2H26. We still expect growth in the low-2%, though downside risks have diminished with Detailed forecasts 45

a stronger labor market. In China, there are no changes on the surface, but strong

Research Analysts 52

exports keeps saving the day amid domestic demand weakness, and rebalancing is

elusive. Europe got the worst of the energy shock, and the outlook remains fragile with

growth at 0.5% this year, but it could have been worse and a recovery should show in Claudio Irigoyen

2027. GlobalBofAS Economist

+1 646 855 1734

Fed hikes are now on the horizon claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com

The global economy will likely be tested by tighter financial conditions emanating from AntonioGlobal EconomistGabriel

the US. The labor market firmed up and inflation dynamics have deteriorated in the US. BofAS

While some one-offs are partly to blame, and tariffs should soon roll off, most of the Aditya Bhave

FOMC seems to be losing patience after 5 years of high inflation. We have been clear USBofASEconomist

that the economy was not asking for cuts and there is a lot of uncertainty on how the Carlos Capistran

Fed will operate, but we now expect 75bp of Fed hikes this year, starting in September. LatAm and Canada Economist

BofAS

Jean-Michel SalibaRisks: Iran, financial conditions, K-shaped dynamics EEMEA Econ Head/MENA Economist

We have long pointed to stubborn inflation in the US triggering Fed hikes as a key risk to MLI (UK)

the outlook.