World at a Glance: Second-half revisions

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World at a Glance: Second-half revisions

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World at a Glance

Second-half revisions

Key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities 25 June 2026

We have a wide variety of forecast revisions heading into H2. We lower our end-year FX, Rates and Commodities

forecasts for EUR-USD to 1.15 and the US10yr yield to 4.50%. Full reopening of Hormuz Global

may bring Brent to $82/bbl this year. Our Econ team expects 3 Fed hikes by end-2026.

John Shin

G10 FX: revisions, EUR-USD lower FXBofASStrategist

We lower our EUR-USD profile with a new end-year forecast of 1.15. We make a variety +1 646 855 2582

joong.s.shin@bofa.com

of forecast revisions reflecting near-term USD upside. However, we still look for

David Hauner, CFA >>

medium- and long-term modest USD downside. Global EM FI/FX Strategist

MLI (UK)

Interest rates: end-year US10yr yield forecast is 4.50% david.hauner@bofa.com

Claudio Irigoyen

After our US economics team shifted from two cuts in late 2027 to 3 hikes starting in Global Economist

September 2026, we revised our forecasts higher. We also revise other rates forecasts BofAS claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com

around the world.

Claudio Piron

Emerging Asia FI/FX Strategist

Merrill Lynch (Singapore)EM Asia: maintain our year-end USD/CNY forecast for 6.7 claudio.piron@bofa.com

We maintain our year-end USD/CNY forecast for 6.7 as seasonally strong China exporter

Helen Qiao

USD selling may drive modest CNY appreciation into year-end. Meanwhile, the oil retreat China & Asia Economist

keeps INR range-bound. Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) helen.qiao@bofa.com

EEMEA: EEMEA faces tighter reality MichaelCommodityWidmerStrategist

Fed hawkishness tightens conditions, offsets Iran deal; long positioning and tight premia MLI (UK) michael.widmer@bofa.com

skew EEMEA FX weaker pre hikes.