Macro roundup heading into Q3

Research evidence excerpt

Macro roundup heading into Q3

Accessible version

Technical Advantage

Market Analysis

Key takeaways 25 June 2026

Technical Strategy• Q3 outlook: SPX correcting, bullish DXY = bearish euro. Oil and US 10Y stabilizing, US

Global

2s10s flattening. FICC and Equity

• SPX: Since May 27 and heading into Q3, a corrective pattern has developed. Reiterate

long hedges into strength. Paul Ciana, CMT Technical Strategist

BofAS• EURUSD confirmed a head-and-shoulders top = More to drop. US 10Y stuck in paul.ciana@bofa.com

narrowing range. Oil in $65-85 range.

Jonathan Hartley, CMT

Technical Strategist

BofAS

jonathan.a.hartley@bofa.comS&P 500: Q3 correction, assess potential for Q4 rally

For 2026, we targeted SPX 7,431 (reached), with upside risk to a frothier 7,741 (YTD

high 7,621). Into Q3, a sideways-to-lower bias has emerged. Mid-year correction risks to

For a list of open trade

persist ahead of a typically supportive post‑midterm backdrop and a potential year-end

recommendations and trade

Santa rally. Since May 27, we have favored adding hedges into strength, trading/rolling

recommendations closed in the last

them on declines, and reassessing later whether year-end upside will materialize.

12 months, please see the trade

Margin Debt: Trending frothier tables at the back of these reports:

YoY margin debt growth through May edged up to +54% (+1% MoM). Prior late-cycle Chart alpha: Six reasons to short euro

peaks reached +72% (Apr 2021), +63% (Jun 2007), and +80% (Mar 2000), each followed 20 May 2026

by equity market peaks around Dec 2021, Oct 2007, and Aug 2000. Chart alpha: Close short US10Y trade

15 May 2026

US 10Y Yield: Stuck in range, seeking breakout

Since Nov 2025, we have held a bearish (pay rates) bias, with higher-yield convictions in

1H26.