Oil Relief Gets Real: GLOBAL RATES TRADER

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Relief Gets Real: GLOBAL RATES TRADER

Economics Research

26 June 2026 | 7:53PM BST

GLOBAL RATES TRADER

Oil Relief Gets Real

The hawkish US front-end repricing has proven resilient despite the ongoing decline George Cole

+44(20)7552-1214 |

in energy prices. But the reduction in inflation risk has helped to restore nominal george.cole@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

duration’s role as a risk asset hedge. We think there is more favorable asymmetry to

William Marshalllongs anchored slightly out from the very front-end of the US (e.g. 1y1y or 2y1y) +1(212)357-0413 |

curve given the likely front-loading of hike risk in response to hotter data. That said, william.c.marshall@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

we think milder job growth and inflation data over the coming months can see Simon Freycenet

end-26 pricing consolidate towards an on-hold baseline. European rates should +44(20)7774-5017simon.freycenet@gs.com|

remain in a relatively tight range as September ECB pricing remains between 0-1 GoldmanBranch Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

hike. Lower rates vol and growth risks should favour front-end EGB spreads, with the Isabella Rosenberg

upcoming Solvency II review a tailwind for long-end sovereign credit. We think the +1(212)357-7628 | isabella.rosenberg@gs.com

hurdle for further Gilt term premium compression is high, but expect UK front-end Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

rates to continue to outperform. The continued underperformance of Japan Friedrich Schaper

+1(917)343-3214 |

duration versus global peers reflects unresolved domestic risks that we think will friedrich.schaper@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

likely maintain pressure on the belly of the curve despite cheap valuations.

Loic Mathys

+44(20)7051-1664 |

loic.mathys@gs.com