US Economic Notes: What you need to know for the week ahead

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Notes: What you need to know for the week ahead

26 June 2026

US Economic Notes

from strong government and leisure/hospitality hiring last month. We would also

caution that private sector hiring has slowed noticeably over the summer months

for the last two years relative to its winter/spring trends. Case in point, private

payroll gains from January to May of 2024 and 2025 averaged 102k and 30k,

respectively, while the June to August averages for those years were just 13k and

zero. Regarding other details of the establishment survey, we expect hours

worked (34.3hrs) and average hourly earnings (+0.3% vs. +0.3%) to remain

steady, which would have the effect of raising the annual growth rate of our

payroll proxy for nominal income growth a little over a tenth to 4.4%.

One potential reason for the pronounced drop off may be seasonal factors amidst

what is still a low hiring/low firing labor environment. In this regard, we will pay

close attention to any notable shifts in the hiring, quits and layoffs rates in

Tuesday’s JOLTS release for May. To be sure, Wednesday’s ADP private

employment survey (+110k vs. +122k) will likely set the tone for market

participants going into Thursday’s BLS report.

In summary, as long the labor market data show continued stability, the Fed’s

focus should remain squarely on inflation. While the recent drop in energy prices

and subsequent decline in market-based inflation expectations likely take some

near-term pressure off the Fed, the underlying trends in core inflation remain

concerning.

Please see the following pages for a forecast summary and estimates of the

upcoming US high-frequency data over the next several weeks.

Figure 1: This week's data schedule and DB forecasts

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.