GS Utilities Daily: RWE: Amprion: Two underappreciated sources of upside // Fortum to acquire Elmera

Research evidence excerpt

GS Utilities Daily: RWE: Amprion: Two underappreciated sources of upside // Fortum to acquire Elmera

Goldman Sachs GS Utilities Daily

Research you can’t miss from past two weeks

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Veolia Environnement: 1H26 preview: Solid results with an update to guidance to come

Europe Wind Manufacturers: US orders continue to progress, adding upside risk to profit outlook

RWE: The Amprion deal: Moving into power grids would bring several positives

Centrica: 1H26 Preview: Weak numbers driven by headwinds flagged

RWE: Amprion: Two underappreciated sources of upside

We believe RWE’s guidance upgrade following the acquisition of an incremental stake in

Amprion looks overly conservative. We explore this and conclude that raising ROE to the

peer average (from c.7% to 9-11%), and assuming a 5-10% incremental stake purchase

in Amprion (as per management statements), could lift 2031 EPS from €4.55 (the new

guidance) to c.€4.90-5.35, implying higher accretion and organic growth. As noted

previously, the deal price is at a much lower premium than those seen in recent similar

transactions. We also highlight that a larger exposure to Amprion would lower the cost

of capital and support higher medium-term leverage. By 2031, Amprion and EON could

be 1/4 of RWE’s equity value. More here.

Fortum to acquire Elmera

Fortum has announced that it has reached an agreement on the terms of a

recommended, conditional voluntary cash tender offer to acquire all issued and

outstanding shares in Elmera. A cash consideration of NOK 47 will be offered for each

share. The offer price represents a premium of 59% compared to the undisturbed

closing trading price of NOK 29.6 on 24 June 2026. The total value of the offer is

approximately NOK 5.1 bn.