Murata (6981.T): Upgrading to Buy - AI servers fuel acceleration in MLCC profit growth

Research evidence excerpt

Murata (6981.T): Upgrading to Buy - AI servers fuel acceleration in MLCC profit growth

Action |

29 Jun 2026 02:35:48 ET │ 20 pages

Murata (6981.T)

Upgrading to Buy - AI servers fuel acceleration in MLCC profit growth

CITI'S TAKE

We upgrade Murata to Buy from Neutral and raise our target price to

¥15,000 from ¥3,900, reflecting revisions to our earnings forecasts,

changes to our valuation assumptions (risk premium down from 4% to 3%), Buy ↑ from Neutral

and a shift in our base year (from FY3/28 to FY3/29). We raise our earnings Price (26 Jun 26 15:30) ¥10,770.0

forecasts significantly, reflecting our increased AI server unit outlook and

favorable MLCC pricing in the AI server space. While we do not currently Target price ¥15,000.0↑

anticipate company-led price revisions for general-purpose products, we from ¥3,900.0

note that such revisions would create additional upside. Expected share price

39.3%

return

MLCC outlook — Murata is now in a phase of accelerated MLCC sales/profit growth

in the AI server space. Rising capacitance has led to unit price hikes, with the Expected dividend yield 0.6%

resulting improvement in product mix boosting profit growth significantly. Given the Expected total return 39.9%

high entry barriers for high value-added products, we think it is relatively easy for Market Cap ¥19,604,546Mthe firm to raise unit prices for server applications, meaning these hikes are likely to

be sustained. We do not currently assume price hikes driven by supply-demand. US$121,330M

OP forecasts — We raise our OP forecasts from ¥380bn to ¥440bn for FY3/27

(+56.1% YoY) and from ¥426bn to ¥630bn for FY3/28 (+43.2%), and newly forecast

¥800bn for FY3/29 (+27.0%). The big increase in our forecasts reflects our increased Price Performance