INNIO Group (INIO.O): Compelling Onsite Data Center Power Play, But Growth Priced in Stock; Initiate INIO Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

INNIO Group (INIO.O): Compelling Onsite Data Center Power Play, But Growth Priced in Stock; Initiate INIO Neutral

INNIO Group (INIO.O)

29 June 2026 Citi Research

Catalysts & Drivers

N-T Demand Outstripping Supply Driven by Data Center Tailwinds - We think

INIO as a “pure-play” reciprocating engine manufacturer is poised to deliver

outsized equipment revenue growth (~47% CAGR from 2025-2028), primarily

supported by Citi’s view on data center infrastructure buildout.

We reiterate our view that we remain in the early-to-middle innings of the data

center infrastructure build-out cycle given industry commentary and Citi’s latest

AI-demand forecast. Across our coverage, we note the following commentary:

ETN’s 1Q26 comments of ~228GW of total data center backlog (and we note

industry sources such as Aterio and Cleanview have since pointed to >300GW as of

June 2026); VRT’s Cloud & Colocation market growth expectation of ~23-25%

(2025-2030); and ConstructConnect’s data center starts tracker pointing to

resilient activity despite higher costs (>4x YTD starts growth as of May ‘26).

Additionally, we reference Citi’s Tech team latest forecast of ~44% total AI demand

capex CAGR (2025-2030) given improving model capabilities, accelerating

enterprise adoption, and encouraging signals following 1Q26 results on AI

investment returns (see here for the industry model).

Figure 1. Global CapEx Related to AI Demand Figure 2. Monthly* Average Data Center Starts Spending

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission.

*Values represent April values from current and prior years (12-MMA in $bn)

Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research, ConstructConnect

Figure 3.