Tracking the US Consumer: Spending Intentions Worsened Despite Further Improvement in Economic Sentiment

Research evidence excerpt

Tracking the US Consumer: Spending Intentions Worsened Despite Further Improvement in Economic Sentiment

Update

June 29, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMIT Hardware | North America Erik W Woodring

Equity Analyst

Tracking the US Consumer: Erik.Woodring@morganstanley.comRauf Ural +1 212 296-8083

Research Associate

Rauf.Ural@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5958

Spending Intentions Worsened Maya C Neuman

Maya.Neuman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1946

Despite Further Improvement in Dylan Liu

Dylan.Liu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4519

Economic Sentiment

IT Hardware

North America

Our June US AlphaWise Consumer survey points to improving Industry View Cautious

consumer sentiment for the 2nd consecutive month, proving we

could be seeing real signs of consumer optimism amid

geopolitical conflict. Still, next 6-mo consumer electronics

spending intentions worsened, likely due to price inflation.MOur latest US AlphaWise Consumer Survey shows that while consumer

sentiment (a leading indicator for spend) improved M/M in June, next 6-month

consumer electronics spending intentions worsened M/M. Our June 18 - June 22

AlphaWise US Consumer survey survey shows that US Consumers became more

positive on the US economy in 2H of June, as sentiment upticked 4 points M/M to -

10%, alongside a 5-point improvement in their N6M household financial situation M/

M, with 24% of respondents expecting an improvement. This marks the second

consecutive month where we've seen an improvement in both of these metrics.

However, next 6-month consumer electronics spending intentions worsened M/M to

-18% (i.e., a growing base of consumers expecting to spend less in N6M), driven by

worsening intentions in earners with incomes both over and under $100K.