Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update

Update

June 28, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+MHDB Financial Services Limited | Asia Pacific Subramanian Iyer

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Subramanian.Iyer@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2234

What’s Changed

HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBF.NS) From To

Price Target Rs720.00 Rs800.00

Bull Case Rs965.00 Rs1,070.00

HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBF.NS, HDBFS IS)

Base Case Rs740.00 Rs820.00

Bear Case Rs440.00 Rs490.00 India Financials | India

Updated Components Stock Rating Equal-weight

EPS Industry View Attractive

Price target Rs800.00

Investment Thesis

Shr price, close (Jun 25, 2026) Rs743.55

Bull Base Bear Scenarios 52-Week Range Rs891.90-555.30

Fiscal Year Ending 03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Risk Reward for HDB Financial Services Limited (HDBF.NS) has EPS (Rs)** 31.29 40.10 51.44 62.19

Prior EPS (Rs)** - 36.34 49.74 61.09

been updated

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

Reason for change ** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We had cut earnings estimates across our coverage lenders on April 27 due to rising

crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Now, we raise earnings given the operating

environment has improved (lower crude oil prices, ceasefire in Middle East conflict).

We still remain watchful of the evolving situation in the Middle East as well as

monsoon progress in India (affected by El Nino conditions).

We raise F27/28/29 EPS estimates by 10.3%/3.4%/1.8% mainly on higher loan

growth, margins and lower credit costs. We raise F26-29 AUM CAGR to 18% from

17% earlier. We raise F27-29 NIM to an average 8.15% from 8.0% earlier. We cut F27

credit costs to 2.23% from 2.34% earlier; F28-29 credit cost assumptions are