Global Macro Commentary | North America June 26: Tech Rotation Rates Rally

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary | North America June 26: Tech Rotation Rates Rally

UpdateMa rate hike at present. TWD underperformed, down ~0.1% versus USD as

foreign equity outflows increased to $4.3bn.

• In LatAm, assets in the region outperformed in the risk-on session,

although FX gains faded into the close. In FX, currencies initially

appreciated before reversing course later in the session. BRL outperformed,

appreciating ~0.25%, while COP underperformed, depreciating ~0.74%. In

rates, all curves rallied, with COP IBR outperforming as the 5y declined

~14bp.

• CEEMEA currencies were mixed as lower oil helped rates sentiment but

did not produce uniform FX strength. USD/ILS rose 0.6%, while USD/ZAR

fell 0.1% and South African 10y yields were broadly stable. Eastern European

FX was softer on the week, though daily moves were modest, with USD/HUF

down 0.3% and USD/PLN down 0.1%. Hungary headlines included a potential

path toward meeting euro-entry criteria by 2030. Gold rose 1.5%, providing

some support to gold-linked assets, while the broader EM equity backdrop

remained pressured by the technology unwind.

Central Bank Monitor

Developed Markets

• In the US, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he has one

rate hike penciled in for 2026, citing concerns about broad

inflationary pressures that extend beyond Middle East-related energy

dynamics. He noted that the goal remains lowering inflation without

causing damage to employment. His remarks reflect a more hawkish

lean relative to the current consensus of an extended pause.

Emerging Markets

• In Thailand, BoT Governor Vitai reiterated that the recent oil-driven

increase in inflation is temporary and that policymakers will “look

through” short-term price pressures. He said there is currently no